| 本帖最後由 最愛比卡超 於 10/5/2009 11:35 AM 編輯
人心惶惶呀..........
你們害怕嗎-.-? 我很怕呀!!!!!!!!!
以下為數段新聞(資料來源: yahoo新聞和bbc)
每天看著這些新聞>_<........唉.........
說真的 我不相信世界上有國家能在短時間在控制A型H1N1
It is worth us to think more!!
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美專家﹕病毒威力遜冬季流感 管軼憂結合禽流殺傷力大增
(明報)5月1日 星期五 05:05
【明報專訊】豬流感全球擴散，但美國 科學家進行的一系列病毒分析顯示，和之前一些在全球殺死數千萬人的病毒相比，這次的豬流感病毒威力相對輕微。他們指出，以在美國與墨西哥南部發現的病毒樣本為例，病毒的破壞性甚至比每年冬天在全球肆虐的流感還低；根據初步分析，這次爆發可以避過最糟糕狀况。
乏增肺部病毒數量能力
今次豬流感疫潮首現時，它和1918年流感的大量相似之處，都令不少科學家心寒。兩種病毒都是在春季結束前及感冒季節完結時發生，受害者多是青壯年人而非嬰兒及老人。它們同屬H1N1病毒 、有同一種負責控制病毒傳染及散播能力的關鍵蛋白質 。但西奈山醫療中心微生物及傳染學家帕萊塞（Peter Palese）發現，與1918年的流感病毒相比，這次的豬流感病毒缺少一種會令人體肺部病毒數量增加、殺傷力極高的氨基酸。
美國病毒學家韋比（Richard Webby）說：「這病毒沒有1918年病毒那樣的的能耐。」當年的流感在全球殺死數千萬人。韋比認為，即使豬流感病毒在全球流行，也不意味它一定會造成高死亡率。他指出，即使在墨西哥，將死亡數字與可能多達數以萬計的感染個案相比，也不算特別高。墨西哥迄今有逾170宗懷疑豬流感死亡個案，但當局周三把確診死亡個案由20宗減至7宗。
「這病毒遠未如1918年大流感病毒」
有美國專家指出，與一般的季節性流感相比，這次的疫情不算極嚴重。負責研究豬流感的美國威斯康星大學分子病毒學家奧爾森（Chrstopher Olsen）說：「先不要忘記，普通的季節性流感，本身已是個重大醫療問題，每年單在美國就殺死數萬人，在全球更是殺死數十萬人。」在一般的流感季節，美國大概5％到20%的人口會「中招」，約有3.6萬人會死亡，死亡率約為0.24%到0.96%。西北大學機械及應用數學系教授布羅克曼（Dirk Brockmann）使用電腦模型預計豬流感在最壞狀况下的傳染狀况，結果發現，在4星期後美國約有1700人「中招」，與每年的流感患者數目相比，這一數字絕不算高。
曾染「1957年流感病毒」者可免疫
喬治亞大學流感學專家特里普（Ralpj Tripp）更發現，那些曾接觸在全球殺死過200萬人的1957年流感病毒的人，對豬流感會產生某程度的免疫力。這大概可以解釋為何在疫情最嚴重的墨西哥，年紀較大的人患病情况相對不太嚴重。
但香港大學 微生物系教授管軼表示，雖然豬流感病毒目前相對溫和，但不能排除它的殺傷力會增大。他指出1918年流感大流行時，第一波的殺傷力也不高，但變種後第二波疫情卻造成大量死亡。他警告若豬流感病毒擴散至埃及 與印尼 等H5N1 禽流感 肆虐地區，兩種病毒重新混合後，便可能演變出毒性超強、傳染力極高的新病毒。
病毒專家：傳播快沙士五倍
(星島)4月28日 星期二 05:30
(綜合報道)
(星島日報 報道)「疫情大爆發已進入倒數計時，若豬流感全球大爆發，中國及印度 作為亞洲區人口最多的國家，部分地區連衞生基礎設施都不完善，疫情爆發時，可能更難以應付。」
香港大學 病毒學專家管軼表示，病毒可人傳人，但世衞警戒級別過於謹慎，對此表憂慮，但相信即使在港爆發，死亡數字亦不會如沙士 般慘重。
料死亡率稍遜
有「禽流感 獵人」之稱的管軼指，豬流感病毒在人與人之間的傳播短時間內不可能遏制，而現時幾乎所有地區都出現病例，事態每時每刻都在不斷變化，「若疫情全球爆發香港亦不能幸免，避到初一亦避不到十五。」但管軼認為，香港政府方面今次反應迅速，他估計今次豬流感即使在港爆發，亦不會像沙士般死亡慘重。
中文大學微生物學系授陳基湘更估計，一旦大流行，由於無人有抗體，可能涉及全球百分之數十的人口會被感染。不過，廣州呼吸疾病研究所所長鍾南山則相信，豬流感不會大規模爆發，而現階段最重要是隔離感染病毒人士，避免病毒擴散。
百日可百萬宗感染
而傳染病專科醫生勞永樂 則表示，一旦豬流感演變成流感大流行，威力可大過沙士。他指，沙士冠狀病毒人傳人速度較慢，一人感染後要十日才再傳給另一人；禽流感更偶爾才由禽鳥傳給人，人傳人更為罕見；反而豬流感傳播較快，萬一變成流感大流行，可以極速傳播，「流感大流行可在短時間內傳播，兩日就有新一宗，是沙士五倍！一百日就可有一百萬宗感染，以香港七百萬人口，即有七分一人中招。假設百分之一要入院，都有一萬人，較沙士本港只有一千七百宗感染，威力更大。」
港大微生物學系教授袁國勇則分指，豬流感在墨西哥的殺傷力似乎較高，其中一個原因可能是病毒透過人傳人，慢慢適應人體，令嚴重性降低。
現時特敏福等抗流感藥對豬流感仍有效，但未能確定流感疫苗對豬流感是否有效用。
US navy halts aid vessel over flu最近更新
The US navy is postponing an aid mission to the South Pacific after a sailor on the vessel scheduled to take the trip developed swine flu.
Nearly 50 others sailors on the California-based USS Dubuque also showed symptoms of the new H1N1 virus.
A US Navy spokesman said officials would be looking at other alternatives to meet the mission's objectives.
Earlier, a woman from Texas become the first US resident believed to have died from swine flu.
The woman - from Cameron County, close to the US border with Mexico - died earlier this week, the Texas Department of State Health Services (DSHS) said.
But in a statement it added that she had been suffering "chronic underlying health conditions".
Lt Cmdr John Daniels said the navy was using "using prudent judgment" in cancelling the deployment of the USS Dubuque.
The amphibious transport vessel normally carries more than 400 crew and about 900 Marines.
It had been due to depart in early June for Samoa, the Solomon Islands, Tonga, Kiribati and the Marshall Islands as part of America's Pacific Partnership humanitarian programme.
Lt Daniels said the mission would still go ahead at some point but the USS Dubuque would no longer be part of it.
Navy Lt Sean Robertson said ill crew members had been treated with anti-viral medication and the remaining crew had been given prophylaxis.
'Catching up' 最近更新
The unnamed woman who died in Texas was in her 30s and had recently given birth, reported Associated Press news agency.
Leonel Lopez, Cameron County epidemiologist said the flu itself was "very benign" but had exacerbated her underlying medical problems.
The woman becomes the second confirmed person to have died from swine flu outside Mexico. A Mexican toddler died of the virus in the US in April.
There are 61 confirmed cases of H1N1 flu reported in Texas, said the DSHS.
The World Health Organization (WHO) said earlier that 1,490 swine flu cases had been verified in 21 countries.
After Mexico, the US has seen the greatest number of laboratory-confirmed infections, at 403.
US Health Secretary Kathleen Sebelius acknowledged that the virus would continue to spread in the United States and elsewhere in the world, and more deaths would follow.
The WHO has urged nations to remain vigilant in spite of the apparently relatively mild nature of swine flu, saying a global pandemic remains a threat.
It points out that the number of infections has continued to grow worldwide.
Clashes erupt over Egypt pig cull
Egyptian pig farmers have clashed with police in Cairo, as they tried to stop their animals being slaughtered. Hundreds of people at the Manshiyat Nasr slum threw stones and bottles at police who responded with tear gas and rubber bullets.
The government wants to cull all the nation's pigs, a move UN experts say is not necessary to prevent swine flu.
Egypt's pigs mostly belong to the Coptic Christian minority who say the cull has reignited religious tensions.
The authorities initially said the pig cull was a precaution against swine flu but now describe as a general public health measure.
There have been no cases of swine flu reported in Egypt.
In Mexico, where the global swine flu outbreak started, the authorities said it could be stabilising.
Overreaction charge
Mexican Health Minister Jose Angel Cordova said the country was seeing fewer cases every day.
Globally more than 700 people are known to be infected.
Person-to-person transmission has been confirmed in six countries.
But in cases outside Mexico, the effects of the virus do not appear to be severe.
There are estimated to be more than 300,000 pigs in Egypt, but the World Health Organisation says there is no evidence there of the animals transmitting swine flu to humans.
Pig-farming and consumption is concentrated in Egypt's Coptic Christian minority, estimated at 10% of the population.
Many are reared in slum areas by rubbish collectors who use the pigs to dispose of organic waste. They say the cull will harm their businesses and has renewed tensions with Egypt's Muslim majority.
On Saturday, health officials began the slaughter in earnest, moving in on a Cairo slum where rubbish collectors are said to keep around 60,000 pigs.
The slaughter is expected to take around a month.
Officials now say the cull is aimed at bringing order to the country's pig-rearing industry, so that in future animals are not reared on rubbish tips but on proper farms.
The government has been criticised for overreacting to the threat, but it was also criticised for responding too slowly to the bird flu crisis two years ago.
When bird flu appeared in the country in 2006 mass culls were carried out but at least 22 humans died from the disease.
個人而言，在沒證據證明swine flu係由豬隻傳染人類 殺豬，但又不補償農民的損失，對農民很不平公！
Personally,no evidence reveals that pigs transmit this flu strain and it is unfair to farmers if the egyptian government slaughter pigs without compensating farmers for the lose of pigs.
Flu death toll 'less than feared'
Mexico has revised down the suspected death toll from swine flu from 176 to 101, indicating that the outbreak may not be as bad as was initially feared. Health Minister Jose Angel Cordova told the BBC that, based on samples tested, the mortality rate was comparable with that of seasonal flu.
Mexico has ordered a five-day shutdown in a bid to contain the virus.
A World Health Organization official said there was no evidence of sustained virus spread outside North America.
WHO Director of Global Alert and Response Dr Michael Ryan said the emergence of more cases in Europe did not mean the WHO would necessarily need to raise its global pandemic alert level.
"I think it would be, at this stage, unwise to suggest that, in any way, those events are out of control or spreading in an uncontrolled fashion," he told a daily press briefing.
"I think the next few days will tell as this develops."
The WHO is sending 2.4m courses of antiviral treatment to 72 nations around the world, Dr Ryan said, among them many developing countries.
The WHO was still trying to establish the severity of the swine flu virus, he added.
Italy reported its first case on Saturday, bringing the number of countries affected to 17.
In Egypt, authorities have begun in earnest the slaughter of more than 300,000 pigs, in what was originally described as a precaution against swine flu.
Officials now say the move is a general health measure aimed at restoring order to Egypt's pig-rearing industry.
Experts say the virus cannot be caught from eating pork and there is no scientific rationale for the cull.
Five countries outside Mexico have confirmed person-to-person transmission.
China is trying to stop the spread of the virus, after getting its first case on Friday.
It says it will quarantine all those who travelled on a flight from Mexico with a man suffering from swine flu.
Flights from Mexico have been suspended, and fellow guests and staff at the Hong Kong hotel where he was staying have been quarantined.
South Korea has also now confirmed a case of the virus.
Risk remains
In cases outside Mexico, the effects do not appear to be severe.
Dr Anne Schuchat, acting deputy director of America's Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), said that although experts were concerned about the possibility of severe cases, the majority so far had been "mild, self-limited illness".
The new virus lacked the traits that made the 1918 flu pandemic so deadly, another CDC official said.
Mr Cordova appeared to agree, saying that the Mexican authorities may, on reflection, have overestimated the danger.
He said 43.7% of samples from suspected cases so far tested had come back positive, a total of 397. Sixteen in this group had died.
"All the samples that were taken give us an idea of the percentage of the ones testing positive," he said.
"That means that apparently, the rate of attack is not as wide as was thought."
But he stressed that the risk of a rise in infection remains and some elements of the five-day shutdown might be extended.
Restaurants, public buildings and businesses have been closed as Mexico tries to bring the virus under control, and people are being urged to stay at home.
Mexico City Mayor Marcelo Ebrard said the emergency measures were bringing results, with the numbers "getting better every day".
There is growing concern about the effect the virus could have on Mexico's economy.
Several US air carriers say they will cut flights to Mexico as demand falls amid concerns over the crisis. Tourism has plummeted since the outbreak was declared a week ago.
Hong Kong 'flu' hotel sealed off
About 300 people at a Hong Kong hotel have been placed under quarantine after a guest there became China's first confirmed swine flu case.
The 25-year-old man, who is now in hospital after testing positive for the virus, had travelled from Mexico via Shanghai, Hong Kong's leader said.
Local TV footage showed police wearing masks guarding the hotel exits.
Meanwhile, the UK joined Canada, Spain, Germany and the US in reporting person-to-person transmission of the virus.
On Friday, French Health Minister Roselyne Bachelot said two people were infected with swine flu, France's first confirmed cases.
South Korea has also confirmed its first case, local media said.
The announcements take to 16 the number of countries where swine flu has been confirmed.
Mexico, where the outbreak began, has shut down parts of its economy for five days in a bid to curb the virus's progress.
Late on Friday, Health Secretary Jose Angel Cordova announced the confirmed death toll from the virus had risen by one, to 16.
"The mortality rate isn't as great as could be expected," said Mr Cordova. "The majority of the deaths are women."
Mexican officials say the spread of swine flu - suspected in more than 380 deaths - is slowing.
International experts are more cautious - but one, Nancy Cox, chief of America's Center for Disease Control's influenza division, said the new virus lacked the traits that made the 1918 pandemic so deadly.
"We do not see the markers for virulence that were seen in the 1918 virus," she said.
Stephen Gibbs looks at the effect of the shutdown on a Mexico City street
Mexico has begun a five-day shutdown of parts of its economy in a bid to slow the spread of swine flu.
Non-essential government services have halted, and businesses like cinemas and restaurants are closed. Traditional May Day rallies have been cancelled.
Mexican officials say the spread of the virus - suspected in more than 160 deaths - is slowing, but international experts are more cautious.
China has now confirmed its first case, taking the tally of nations hit to 14.
In cases outside Mexico the virus does not appear to be severe, although one death has been confirmed in the US.
The WHO has set its pandemic alert level at five - but says it has no immediate plans to move to the highest level of six.
CONFIRMED CASES
Mexico: 101 suspected deaths - 16 confirmed
US: One death, at least 141 confirmed cases
New Zealand: 4 confirmed, 12 probable cases
Canada: 35 confirmed cases
UK, Spain: 15 confirmed cases
Germany: 4 confirmed cases
France, Israel, Costa Rica: 2 confirmed cases
Netherlands, Switzerland, Austria, Denmark, Hong Kong, South Korea, Italy: 1 confirmed case
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Countries with confirmed cases of secondary transmission
Mexico
US
Canada
Spain
Germany
UK
Economy fears
The shut-down in Mexico covers two public holidays and a weekend.
It extends nationwide a policy already in place in the capital, Mexico City, where most restaurants, cinemas and bars have been closed since last weekend.
City authorities say initial evidence suggests infection rates there are slowing.
Some factories will stop production and schools are already closed. Residents have been urged to stay at home.
But some people say they will ignore it because they cannot afford not to work.
There is also growing concern at the effect the virus could have on Mexico's already-struggling economy.
The number of confirmed cases of swine flu infection in Mexico now stands at about 300, officials say.
Twelve people are known to have died from the virus and it is suspected of causing more than 160 other deaths.
Announcing the figures, Mexican Health Secretary Jose Angel Cordova said that new cases of the virus were levelling off.
"The fact that we have a stabilisation in the daily numbers, even a drop, makes us optimistic," he said.
But Dr Keiji Fukuda, acting assistant director general of the World Health Organization, said fluctuations were to be expected. "If it didn't do that [it] would be very unusual," he said.
In other developments:
• The US has announced that it will buy 13 million new courses of antiviral treatment and send 400,000 of them to Mexico
• An aide to US Energy Secretary Stephen Chu who helped arrange President Obama's recent trip to Mexico is being tested for swine flu, AP reports, although the aide is said not to have been in contact with the president
• Swine flu is confirmed in a Mexican traveller arriving in Hong Kong, the first case in China
• Denmark reports its first confirmed case of swine flu
• German authorities confirm that a nurse who treated a patient with swine flu also contracted the disease, in the first person-to-person transmission in the country
• Test results are expected to confirm the UK's first person-to-person transmission of swine flu, in a friend of a couple from Scotland who were first in the country to be diagnosed with the virus
• Mexico says it will lodge a formal challenge at the World Trade Organisation demanding explanations from countries that have banned imports of Mexican pork products
SYMPTOMS - WHAT TO DO
Swine flu symptoms are similar to those produced by ordinary seasonal flu - fever, cough, sore throat, body aches, chills and fatigue
If you have flu symptoms and recently visited affected areas of Mexico, you should seek medical advice
If you suspect you are infected, you should stay at home and take advice by telephone initially, in order to minimise the risk of infection
Q&A: What is swine flu?
Mexican economy squeezed by flu
In pictures: Flu concern grows
The quest for a swine flu vaccine
'No panic'
On Thursday European health ministers held an emergency meeting on measures to tackle the virus, which has been confirmed in six European countries.
EU Health Commissioner Androulla Vassiliou said Europe was well prepared to handle swine flu and there was "no need to panic".
The ministers agreed to work with pharmaceutical companies to develop a vaccine, but rejected a French plan to suspend flights to Mexico.
Several countries have restricted travel to Mexico and many tour operators have cancelled holidays.
The WHO, meanwhile, says it will now call the virus influenza A (H1N1) rather than swine flu - which it says is misleading as pork meat is safe and the virus is being transmitted from human to human.
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